Sunday, April 29, 2007

感受小镇LLangollen

[thengothen],是一个威尔士语的单词 ,也是一个让我留下难忘印象,认识了很多朋友的地方,包括威尔士的地方法官,热情的大人和小孩,传说中的同样热情的威尔士大汉,见识了200年前的悬空引水渠系统,坚固的城堡,结识了巴布亚新几内亚土人的未来国会议员,会说汉语的百利兹混血活动家,可亲的赞比亚兄弟,中亚各型各色的哈萨克。

赞比亚,非洲最安全的国家,坦赞铁路还在使用,中国在赞比亚开铜矿,纺织工业。决定了,这里就是非洲旅行的第一站

5个人和我说汉语,很好玩哦,还教赞比亚兄弟石头剪刀布,约定30年后去该国检查流行情况

几乎忘记了哭,不过小孩子还没有忘记,真情流露,很可爱

Tuesday, April 24, 2007

明星管理系统

看谢雨忻的搏客,似乎她在和簇拥之间保持某种短信联系,以便通知最新活动。
想到,这样的东西不应该是手工,或者简单的群发完成的,应该有一个系统来完成。把这个系统叫做“支持者——簇拥”吧,系统的目的是便利中心人物(明星)和支持者(歌迷)之间的信息流,目标协同,以至财务流(比如统一捐款爱心活动)等,可以小到“歌迷会系统”,大到“客户关系管理系统”。
今天偶然看到“微量支付平台”的创业理念,觉得不错

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原来福贵的儿子是这么死的!

儿子有庆为救县长夫人,被抽血过多而死,被冷漠的医生夺去了生命

笔者只看过电影(不可能审查通过的),没有说儿子抽血的事情,儿子是修水库的年代,墙塌了压死的。。。


原来改编电影的时候,已经为官者讳了,还是通不过。。。

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Monday, April 23, 2007

对于死亡的领悟

taschen
Metzger
The painting of himself lacks the remote sublimity of a twinkling night sky; but the self-portrait anticipates, intuits and includes it. "I view this portraint as that of a buddhist.
I must declare that I know nothing about them, but when I look at the stars I always start dreaming, as readily as when the black points that indicate towns adn villages on a map always start me dreaming. Why, I wonder, should the shining points of the heavens be less accessible to us than the black dots on a map of France? Just as we take a train in order to travel to Tarascon or Rouen, we use death in order to reach a star, In one respect this thought is undoubtedly true: we can no more travel to a star while we are alive than we can take a train once we are dead. At all events, it does not strike me as impossible that cholera, kidney stones, cancer and consumptionshould be means of celestrial transport as steamers and railways are earthly ones. To die peacefully of old age would be the equivalent of going on foot" This passage from Letter 506 is crucial to an understanding of the suicide that ended van Gogh's life but for the moment we can take it as defining two areas: a remote one (longed for and unattainable) out in the universe; and one in this world, quite concretely located in Arles, involving all the routine drudgery of everyday life

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创新无处不在

关键是,不要让框架束缚住自己的思维。。

桌子防摇器:“史上最可笑的发明”热卖于市

2007年04月23日 08:44:33  

新华网北京4月22日专电 两年前,英国人安德鲁·戈登在英国广播公司(BBC)商业台的创意商机节目介绍自己的小发明——桌子防摇器,专家们捧腹大笑。如今,这个一度被称作“历史上最可笑发明”的小塑料装置已经为戈登赚到了500万英镑。
据英国《泰晤士报 》20日报道,特易购、宜家和百安居等大型家居产品零售商纷纷向戈登下了订单。英国王室也对这种小装置产生了兴趣。英国考试协会刚刚订购了20万个桌子防摇器。
桌子防摇器是一种8片塑料制成的小装置,能根据桌子摇晃程度自我调整,对桌脚起到固定作用。这个小装置虽然名为“桌子防摇器”,其实也可用来固定洗衣机、书柜、花架等家具或器具。
戈登说,桌子防摇器的创意纯属偶然。他说:“有次,我和朋友喝啤酒,突然发现酒吧桌子下垫着几张餐巾纸,原来是桌子不平总爱摇晃,不得已才用这种方法将桌子垫平。我就想设计一种小装置,可以调整桌腿长短,让桌子平稳不摇晃。”
小装置做成后,戈登兴奋地报名参加BBC商业台的创意商机节目。这个节目旨在鼓励创业者展示独特创意,由商业成功人士当评委。获专家好评的创意可以赢得节目提供的资金。没想到,桌子防摇器遭到专家们的一致嘲笑。有位嘉宾甚至说,桌子防摇器是她听到过的最荒诞的想法。
如今桌子防摇器生意越做越大,戈登说,专家们显然是看走眼了。据他介绍,他没有给桌子防摇器做任何广告,但是这个产品上网1个月就获得了100多万次点击

古哥新闻搜索真慢

北京时间23点07分,新华网刊出中文消息

北京时间次日3:20分,谷歌新闻搜索仍然是叶利钦的老消息

35分左右,终于搜到“3小时前”的相关新闻。

忘了同时打开新兰搜狐看看了,这才是考验谁是最及时新闻的时候

Sunday, April 22, 2007

读书笔记:《商业建模与数据挖掘〉

1。

什么情况下,考虑variance(不同概率结果的差异)

决策时,考虑风险,用的是不同可能结果的利润产出间的差值(variance), 除了期望利润还要考虑这个?

想了一下,只有当对不同结果的概率值预测信心不足的时候,才有必要考虑,也就是说,惧怕损失,即使损失的概率计算出来很小的时候。

更稳妥的指标是风险度,取值在+1到-1,用满意(最大可能收益)和后悔(最大可能损失)来算出

2。

类比metaphore,属于一种很好地认识世界的手段。 作者建议:买一本其他领域的杂志,其中一定能找出一种或多种方法,可以用于解决本领域的问题。这样可以极大地扩张发现相似点和从不同新角度来看问题的能力

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Saturday, April 21, 2007

有奖调查 及 写评论赚钱

Thursday, April 19, 2007

影响力

社学心理学家西奥迪尼在他的《影响力〉一书中揭示了,为什么新闻报道是魔鬼,因为每次报道相似的自杀/交通事件之后,死于类似的交通时间的人数会在有报导的地方上升。

因为那些想自杀的人,发现有人最近这么做了,就更倾向于模仿,而作为司机,制造交通意外是一个对大家都说得过去的体面的自杀方式。。

这就是今天16岁少年制造恐吓枪击案的原因。。。

该书中重要的另一点:对他人表示你的善意,分给将你俘虏的突袭队员一半你正要吃的面包,可能能救被俘士兵一命。

遇到突发情况,求助一定要明确,因为周围路过的人太多,从众效应导致可能想帮忙的人判断错误从而走开。“你,那位穿红衣服的女士,请给医院打电话,我的心脏病发作了”

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Wednesday, April 18, 2007

好书读后:商业建模与数据挖掘

Business modelling and Data Mining

Dorian Pyle著


该书并不拘泥于具体算法和局限的应用实例,而是从世界观(人们怎样通过主观的知识体系认识世界,并受其局限)入手,开篇即阐述了“为什么”,“确定挖什么”,“怎么挖,怎么建模”。


我越读越感觉,这些都是非常重要的,对于一个想在企业(由多人的不同思维、知识,企业的思维、知识构成的系统里)里崭露头角,对企业进步有所贡献的人。这也是作者不惜花好几页来定义“事件”,“物件”,“感知”,“结构”,“数据”“系统”等的原因,重新梳理这些概念,对于建模,有着哲学和基础的指导意义。譬如作者定义“事件”即不可逆的对周围发生影响的一种变化,无论其是多么小的变化,并以月球背面石头脱落的例子让读者有了一个非常明确的认知和认同。


兹举一例如下:在讲述从模式到知识的认识过程中(1.3.2),举了一个例子,问“13的一半是什么?”,要求在思考答案时,注意自己的思维过程,尽量去感受认识使能(enabling paradigm (of personal unconsicious learning/knowledging system))是如何工作的,看看是否能找到其局限和不舒服(可以改进)的地方。


一开始读的时候没注意,我给了一个“正确”答案:6.5,至于过程,不就是小学生学会的标准除法吗,没什么太多可想的。


回头一看,“请给出你的答案或答案们(复数)” write out your answers or answers.心念一动,一半的标准是什么?我果然受到了自己的认识体系的蒙蔽(如同作者提到,切尔诺贝利的科学家们,拒绝相信从控制室亲眼看到的反应堆融化,因为这和他们非常确信的真理抵触,这就是灾难成型的原因)。13的左边一半是1,右边一半是3,上边一半是1)(写不出来),还有斜着一半的分法,以及写在纸上,烧成灰之后的一半灰。thirteen的一半还可以是tite.

经典论述摘要:建模者需要和其他人的世界观协调工作,并可能需要去改变这些观点.

A E F H I K L M N T 这列字母有什么规律?



A B E G H J K O T U 的下一个字母是什么?


看完该书(的前20页)你就会有答案,非常简单的答案

提示2:下一个字母是V, 需要一个一阶2维的思考(one order, two variables(or dimensions),不算复杂)

检验一下你是不是被自己的知识认知体系给限制住了


需要答案也可以留言哦,欢迎交流

Monday, April 16, 2007

Nisbet's comment of KXEN n trend

The Future for KXEN?
As for Clementine, the future of KXEN may lie outside the box of their GUI interface. I expect to hear of many more analytical and planning packages (e.g., SAP) incorporating data mining capabilities as enablers. Data mining is not really an "end" per se , but a means to an end. These "means" will become progressively submerged in the infrastructure of the products they serve until they are as natural to use as standard arithmetic and graphical techniques. KXEN will undoubtedly lead the charge in this direction.

Sunday, April 15, 2007

很好的挖掘资料列表 Good DM resources (fwd)

dbk2008收藏夹


当前资料类别 : 数据挖掘工具与应用 具体内容列表如下:
New Study Confirms that it Really Does Pay to Advertise
UCI researchers ′text mine′ The New York Time...
IDC names BI market share leaders, predicts consolidation
Using the Oracle Data Mining API
中国移动经营分析系统中数据仓库的应用
数据挖掘推动商业流程改进
Probabilistic Models for Discovering E-Communities
Invisible Participants: How Cultural Capital Relates to L...
广东电信建成数据挖掘分析系统
Sears Uses DM In Cosmeo Homework Help Deal With Discovery...
对数据仓库的需求趋动数据库市场迅速增长
房地产行业需要“深挖”数据
新新营销学:Mosaic 从社区切入的精准营销
OpenMiner数据挖掘引擎的主要技术和大体框架
“以客户为中心”实施理念真的够个性化吗?
企业实力要攀升 数据挖掘与CRM能帮什么忙?
From DM News′ Essential Guide to Search Engine Mark...
Staples Enters Taiwan Market
北京移动经营分析系统
把脉盈利模式 创造最佳效益
商业智能应用的机遇与挑战
江苏烟草破旧立新展现烟草流通领域新变化
Winners of Microsoft Research Grants on Innovation in Sea...
Data mining: The new weapon in the war on terrorism?
公安业务信息数据挖掘研究
The prudsys DISCOVERER 5.0 offers technological progress
Mining Medicaid
StatSoft Announces STATISTICA Variance Estimation and Pre...
Job seekers get wise to data mining
Data Mining Email
Aggregate Knowledge Recommendation Engine
Increasing Precision, Consistency and Agility of Operatio...
Decision Responsibility
Challenges of Data Managers Surveyed by Symantec
Research: From lab to market
Eureka! Knowledge Discovery
Feature: The Eighth Annual Editors′ Choice Awards
市场细分——企业成功的一大法宝
数据挖掘在电信欺诈侦测中的应用
数据挖掘技术的三大支柱
商业银行反洗钱的法律与实务分析
宝莲灯 - 企业信息通讯平台
New Product News
Data Mining Tools: Which One is Best for CRM? Part 3 Cont...
Data Mining Tools: Which One is Best for CRM? Part 3
Data Mining Tools: Which One is Best for CRM? Part 2
Which One is Best for CRM? Part 1
Mining E-Customer Behavior
Whither privacy, post-9/11?
Security Issues in Data Mining
Oracle Introduces New Oracle Business Intelligence Suite
以数据挖掘为基础建立投资组合
Data Mining: Exploiting the Hidden Trends in Your Data
Duo-Mining: Combining Data and Text Mining
Research: From lab to market
渣打银行 - 多样化的优势
SAS与统计模型的选择
S-PLUS、SAS与SPSS的比较
用SAS做聚类分析
用SAS做判别分析
Stata入门介绍
The FLIP System
A Stunning Multi-purpose Integrated LEarning System
在企业应用中使用Java数据挖掘API
商业智能巨头陷入平台争夺战
数据开采工具及应用
Essbase OLAP Server 特性介绍
虚拟现实数据采集工具
数据处理相关软件
使用 WebSphere Commerce Analyzer...
DataStudio在电信运维中的应用
KEYSPAN选用SAS9商业智能应用案例
数据挖掘走入语音处理
An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning
蓝凌企业知识门户解决方案(LKS-EKP)
Important Data Mining Topics
Machine Learning Project
A Summary of Spatial Data Mining Softwares
Software: Text Analysis, Text Mining and Information Retr...
于数据挖掘的课程相关 性方法研究与实现
数据库及数据挖掘在国税系统中的应用
数据挖掘:信息化战争的基础工程
SPSS数据挖掘产品
SAS Text Miner
数据挖掘--极具发展前景的新领域
数据挖掘技术与金融数据分析
数据挖掘在银行业应用
数据挖掘在金融行业的应用趋势分析
用友金融行业财务管理解决方案
金融行业的数据集成与商业智能
如何透过数据挖掘提升客户服务中心的价值
金融信用决策的技术突破——数据挖掘的应用
数据挖掘的研究现状
数据挖掘中常见的一些问题
选择正确的挖掘工具
SQL Server 2000数据挖掘/数据仓库研讨会
数据挖掘工具简介
数据挖掘的一个完整过程 
数据挖掘对数据库安全的威胁
数据挖掘的五个误区
数据挖掘:上证所启动数据仓库二期项目
数据挖掘技术理论
数据挖掘的价值:寿险行业数据挖掘应用分析
客户关系管理与数据挖掘技术综述
数据挖掘工具
数据挖掘器:警告 : 及时采取行动
应用程序厂商将会“挖掘”数据挖掘的商用价值
跨国IT企业争夺战 掘金中国数据挖掘市场
SAS牵手北京大学共建数据挖掘卓越中心
海量软件搜索公开测试 数据挖掘成为主题
数据挖掘:信息化战争的基础工程
美国密苏里州采用Teradata税务解决方案
Welcome - HypKNOWsys
:::数据挖掘工具:::
:::数据挖掘的流程:::
:::实施数据挖掘项目考虑的问题:::

worst practices for data miners

This Way Failure Lies

Rule 2. Frame the problem in terms of the data. Don't consider alternative solutions to the business situation. Because the problem has been passed to a data miner, the best way to solve the problem is through data analysis. Don't consider whether other decision-making or data-gathering efforts would be appropriate, or whether some other method of dealing with the business problem would help. Don't consider the other challenges faced by the company or the specifics of the industry the company competes in. Consider only what the data set as it currently exists has to reveal. Whatever the data can be persuaded to reveal, recast the business objective in terms that the data addresses.

Sunday, April 08, 2007

一段对话,中文为笔者观点

考虑accounting及部门价值,是否可以考虑未来企业结构的发展趋势,哪些部门会外包,那些会调整,那些会整合。我相信你已经看到了财务和分析的结合趋势,很有前途。

仅提供几个背景:
1。你所考虑的,和商业智能/决策支持的目标/手段是很接近的,所以(我感觉)已经超出了(被广泛认可的)公司内传统accounting的范畴

2。商业智能/决策支持能发挥多大的作用,我感觉很难超过CRM/ERP,这两个理论上(客户关系,整个企业生产流程)都是对企业更不可缺少,更有价值的东西。推广度也很高,但吃力不讨好,俗话叫"不上erp等死,上了erp找死"。

当然,由于竞争市场,越来越多的公司都得采用这些东西,有了系统并不保证优势,没有系统可能就是劣势。这也是我考虑过的:什么样的公司能够在竞争中取得有利位置,是技术创新,还是客户/服务导向,还是开拓夹缝市场,还是细分/重定义市场。近期流行可以参见蓝海和长尾。

至少可以保证CRM/ERP从业人员小日子不错。最有价值的是能把这些难以作好的作出经验来的咨询管理人员。。。和你的定位接近

说回我的观点,有一点很明显,我以为,客户关系管理系统crm,并不能从本质上提高某个公司的竞争力,因为每个公司都可以,都在花钱装备CRM信息系统,他的价值并不比促销更明显,不比quidco这样颠覆性的回馈体系对消费者的影响更大更有效,更重要的是确定好自己的公司战略。

每个公司都采用系统(例如发行积分卡)导致的是同质化竞争,这时候个性更重要,发挥更重要,当然之前你得装备标准了。

一个培训的观点是:创新并不能带来企业长久的竞争力,因为长远看来技术总会被竞争对手赶上。至今没有足够证据让我认同这个观点,属于正确的废话吧

以前的人力资源总监分析自己的企业定位让我觉得很有见地:有的企业可以以研发/产品创新为竞争力,我们的企业的长处和竞争力在于客户,对客户服务的不断提高,不在于创新。

这就叫扬长避短,和企业文化很可能互为因果。


However, I am still interested in EMBA/MBA ;) It doesn't matter whatever others say, and I will take the option by my judgement and needs, particular by global labour market, my dream, feeling and so on.

Whether EMBA or MBA is nonsense, even you can say university is rubbish. The principal is similar with the way I come to York. This is not the key point. If it is necessary, I need such kind of background and experience. I never expect so called MBA can teach me a lot of things.

I just enjoy it. If I choose it at last, the only reason is my favourite. Furthermore, it will benefit my future even it can not bring promotion in my career path and money itself.

Whatever the universities taught, we will become more wise and see its nature if we have calmly head. The last one is the key point. Once I decide, I never change my mind.

I support others look down upon accounting if they dont understand it, but I am proud of my accounting background. This point bring me more commercial sense, and I grow up in this field. Accounting never become the ultimate aim, and it only helps us to find better strategy, provide more useful information, and the most important thing I know the truth more than others if I am in charge of accounts in a company. I know the truth, profit and cost. I can not produce revenue directly, but I know where the revenue comes from, and the factors influence profit. Whatever and whenever, no one can give up accounting if they concern profit and cost, particularly they want to know how to earn more money, and why they can earn money.

Perhaps you will disagree my thoughts. Never mind, I just do myself and stick to my thoughts.

By the way, modern accounting is never Balance Sheet or P+L, cash flow. These are only basic things and least simple thing in the junior level in the accounting. Nowadays accounting itself concern more on analysis , and then provide decision making support, particularly strategy. Even for marketing, how can you know you get profit at this product? You can not simply say the more we sell, the more we earn . Do you consider perhaps you spend more? The professional analysis will based on the cost driver and the revenue, moreover, you can not say we earn more this year. You must stand the product life cycle to get your conclusion. Based on this point, Malcom Macdonald is too old and too subjective, which this image is gotten from the paragraph you sent to me. At least, I dont think he know what is accounting. If he think accounting only refer to B/S, I will think: oh, this man only study first year of an undergraduate who majors in accounting. How can you say this guy had retired? At least, he know little for a company's operation or he know more but out-of-date. How stupid he is.

Of course, accounting never become tiger balm that can recovery everything. It just let you know the result of your company, marketing, profit and others. As a CEO, you must judge everything after you get such kind of information.
>>On 03/04/07, hunter wrote:
晚上是市场营销的老大Malcom Mcdonald来讲,这是他从Cranfield退休后专门给我们讲的一堂课。他认为accounting的用处就是混淆视听,几张财务报表翻来覆去的倒腾,弄得公司在决策会上都谈财务这个昨日黄花而非决定企业未来命运的营销战略。而市场营销的根本问题,他那饱经风霜的脸上露出一丝嘲弄的微笑,其实就是做到市场细分而已。可是,大家不是没有做,就是做不到真正的细分。所谓真正的细分,就是分到一堆萝卜一堆白菜,彼此泾渭分明,凑起来是100%的市场份额,然后细细的研究萝卜和白菜各自要什么,怎么满足需求,市场营销就算毕业了。 最后他说,整个MBA课程其实四个小时就可以讲完,何必花2万4千镑来上一年。我们的school director看起来要吐血,可是没有办法,老头还是她在这里上mba时的导师呢

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http://forum.sinoci.cn/3027.html?

EMBA听课记

Wednesday, April 04, 2007

user assistance in data mining

There are a few stumbling stones preventing users and data analyst from reaching their goal of knowledge discovery in databases.

1. Task identification, which is often thought to be clear. This could also involve business understanding and data understanding on an iterative basis.

2. Selection of proper algorithm, model

3. Evaluation criteria (understandability, accuracy, algorithm complexity etc) and tradeoffs between: accuracy/speed/MDL (minimum description length)/cost of false positive/negative and so on.

Recent work of mine will be proposing a framework to facilitate user to manage their expectation and control deliverable result from mining effort.
to be continued